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Executive takeaway The Iran conflict is not only a geopolitical headline. It is a business resilience event. Companies should use this moment to reassess critical operations, third-party dependencies, cyber readiness, sanctions exposure, and crisis decision-making before disruption forces action. |
The Business Issue
Geopolitical instability can move quickly from the front page to the operating model. The current conflict involving Iran and the broader Middle East is creating pressure across shipping routes, energy markets, digital infrastructure, sanctions compliance, and global supply chains.
Even companies without direct operations in the region can experience downstream disruption through vendors, logistics providers, commodity exposure, technology dependencies, and customer delivery obligations. For leadership teams, the practical question is not whether every organization is directly exposed to Iran. The better question is whether the organization understands how a conflict-driven shock could affect business continuity, third-party performance, risk governance, and operational decision-making.
Why it Matters
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Business implication |
Why it matters |
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Energy and logistics are tightly connected |
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy route. EIA data shows it carried about 20 million barrels per day of oil in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, and about one-fifth of global LNG trade also transited the strait in 2024. Recent reporting indicates commercial traffic through Hormuz has been severely restricted. |
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Third-party exposure is often indirect |
A company may have no direct footprint in the region and still rely on suppliers, carriers, data centers, energy inputs, raw materials, or sub-tier vendors affected by conflict, route disruption, sanctions, or cost volatility. |
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Cyber risk can escalate during conflict |
Government and industry alerts have warned of Iranian-affiliated cyber activity, including activity targeting operational technology and heightened risk to financial services and critical infrastructure. |
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Boards expect clear, timely answers |
Executives and boards need to know what could break first, who owns the response, how quickly the organization can act, and whether existing plans are realistic under current conditions. |
Where Companies May Feel the Impact
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Risk area |
Potential business impact |
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Operational resilience |
Transportation delays, facility disruption, service interruptions, workforce constraints, and recovery-plan gaps. |
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Third-party risk |
Critical vendor outages, sub-tier supplier fragility, concentration risk, route dependency, and supplier financial stress. |
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Cyber and technology risk |
Increased phishing, ransomware, operational technology exposure, third-party technology disruption, and incident response pressure. |
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Financial and compliance risk |
Fuel and freight cost volatility, sanctions exposure, contract performance issues, insurance implications, and disclosure considerations. |
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Crisis management |
Need for faster escalation, clearer decision rights, coordinated communications, and alignment across legal, operations, risk, compliance, security, and business leadership. |
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The risk is rarely isolated A single disruption can cascade across functions: delayed shipments can become missed customer commitments; cost spikes can become margin pressure; sanctions changes can become compliance obligations; cyber threats can become operational interruptions. The value of resilience is connecting these risks before they connect themselves. |
What Leadership Teams Should Do Now
Organizations do not need to react with alarm. They do need to respond with discipline. The most effective first step is a focused review of exposure, assumptions, and readiness across the areas most likely to be stressed by geopolitical disruption.
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Priority action |
What to validate |
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1. Map critical services and dependencies |
Identify the business services, vendors, facilities, routes, systems, and people most critical to revenue, customers, and regulatory obligations. |
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2. Reassess business continuity assumptions |
Validate whether current plans reflect realistic scenarios involving fuel, transportation, vendor, cyber, workforce, or regional disruption. |
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3. Review critical third parties |
Prioritize vendors by operational importance and evaluate geography, sub-tier dependencies, resilience commitments, concentration risk, and contingency options. |
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4. Strengthen cyber and operational technology vigilance |
Confirm monitoring, escalation, incident response, and coordination across risk, technology, legal, compliance, and business owners. |
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5. Align crisis governance |
Clarify decision rights, executive escalation thresholds, communications protocols, and cross-functional ownership before the organization is under pressure. |
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6. Monitor sanctions and regulatory change |
Ensure sanctions, trade, contractual, and regulatory developments are monitored and translated into actionable business guidance. |
Questions Executives and Boards Should Be Asking
- Which critical services or revenue streams would be most exposed to a prolonged shipping, energy, vendor, or cyber disruption?
- Which third parties are most critical to our operations, and do we understand their geographic, logistical, and sub-tier dependencies?
- Are business continuity plans tested against current geopolitical conditions, or are they based on outdated assumptions?
- Do we have clear executive escalation triggers if disruption affects customers, regulators, vendors, or employees?
- How quickly can we identify sanctions, trade, contractual, or compliance impacts and translate them into operating decisions?
- Are cyber incident response and operational technology controls aligned with the current threat environment?
How Eliassen Group Can Help
Eliassen Group’s Business Advisory - Risk & Compliance practice helps organizations move from concern to action. Our approach is practical, targeted, and designed to help leadership teams understand exposure, prioritize decisions, and strengthen resilience without overcomplicating the response.
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Eliassen capability |
How it helps clients |
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Rapid Geopolitical Risk Diagnostic |
A focused assessment of operational, third-party, governance, compliance, and technology risk exposure areas, with prioritized recommendations for leadership. |
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Operational Resilience Review |
Evaluation of continuity planning, crisis management structures, critical business services, recovery assumptions, and response readiness. |
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Third-Party Risk Exposure Assessment |
Identification of critical vendor dependencies, supplier concentration, sub-tier risk, geographic exposure, and resilience gaps. |
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Executive Scenario Workshop |
A facilitated leadership session to test plausible disruption scenarios, decision rights, communications, escalation paths, and response priorities. |
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Risk Governance and Compliance Review |
Review of governance frameworks, escalation protocols, risk reporting, sanctions monitoring, and control ownership to support timely response. |
Recommended Starting Points
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Client need |
Recommended entry point |
When to use it |
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Fastest path |
Rapid Geopolitical Risk Diagnostic |
Best when leadership needs a quick view of exposure and practical next steps. |
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Most operationally focused |
Operational Resilience Review |
Best when the priority is continuity, recovery, crisis response, and critical services. |
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Most vendor-focused |
Third-Party Risk Exposure Assessment |
Best when the concern is supplier concentration, outsourced services, or hidden sub-tier exposure. |
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Best for executive alignment |
Executive Scenario Workshop |
Best when leaders need to align on decisions, ownership, and response under pressure. |
Author
Bill Gienke
VP and Principal, Business Advisory Solutions